As we approach the 2016 election season, the economy is at the forefront of voters’ minds. At the latest webinar in TREC’s Webinar Series sponsored by Jones Day, Bob Doll, senior portfolio manager and chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management, provided an economic and investment update and predicted what to anticipate during the presidential race.
Here are the biggest takeaways:
With the current environment of up one day, down the next, here are the positives:
- Earning recession is over in U.S.
- Central bank policy is friendly
- Consumer is in good shape
- Fiscal policy is likely
- Sentiment is bearish
And here are the negatives:
- Economic growth is sluggish
- Deflationary forces continue
- Brexit creates uncertainties
- Geopolitical risks remain
- Fiscal policy lacking and over-regulation
How the stock market performs 90 days before the election is telling.
If the market is up, the incumbent party, meaning Hillary Clinton, will win the election. If the stock market is down, the challenging party, meaning Donald Trump, will become president. August 5 was the 90 day mark for this election and the market is down, which indicates Donald Trump will win.
Hear the full extent of Bob Doll’s comments and advice:
Economic & Investment Update from The Real Estate Council on Vimeo.